Plan for Russian Military Base in Belarus Goes Forward

Belorussian President Alexander Lukashenko

Recently in various news outlets, there has been recent talk about Russian military expansion in the Syrian Civil War. But very few have mentioned another point of Russian expansion: plans for a new Russian air base in its neighboring country Belarus. According to Radio Free Europe, Russian President Vladimir Putin has voiced his approval of the government proposal for an air base in the country, and told members of his Foreign Ministry to start talks with Belarus to move the project forward.

As its closest ally, Russia has had a military presence in Belarus for some time now; there are two military facilities within the country where the Russian military has a radar station and a submarine communications center, as well as some fighter aircraft. However, this would be the first full-scale military base on Belorussian territory since the Soviet Era.

Ever since Crimea and the start of the ongoing Ukraine conflict, Russia has tried to reassert itself, and more importantly, its military, as a dominating force around the world. So a key reason for this proposed base would obviously be to expand its military capabilities and to keep Russia’s NATO neighbors, particularly Poland and the Baltic states, on edge. But another reason for the base could be to send a message to Belorussian President Alexander Lukashenko: don’t stray too far from the motherland.

The Eastern European country of Belarus depends on Russia for practically everything. Belarus’s economy depends almost entirely on Russia, and Belarus gets nearly all of its energy from Russia as well. The country also enjoys Russian protection in response to criticisms from the West for its dictatorship-style government. As a result, on foreign policy and other matters, Belarus has often obediently followed Russia’s lead. The country has very few other close allies, so Russia seemed like its only option.

However, this policy changed somewhat last year in light of the Ukrainian conflict. Instead of simply backing up Russia, President Lukashenko took a more mediated approach: it was in the capital of Minsk where the first and second rounds of peace talks were held between Ukraine, Russia, France, and Germany. In fact, due to the gradual deterioration of the Minsk II agreement, there have now been talks of a third meeting between the parties, once again to be held in Belarus.

As well, Lukashenko has yet to announce a clear show of support for either side of the conflict. On the Crimean Peninsula, he stated that the land was under de facto Russian rule, but that he supported the territorial integrity of Ukraine and that “Ukraine should remain an integral, indivisible, and non-aligned state.” He has been even vaguer on the Ukrainian Crisis as a whole, only calling for peace talks and hailing any progress towards a deescalation of the conflict, no matter how small it may be.

In the meantime, the Belorussian Leader has tried to warm up relations with the West. He has attempted to expand ties with the European Union and cool down the country’s tense relationship with the United States over its human rights abuses. Just recently, he has released many prominent political opposition figures from prison and allowed another opposition activist to return to the country after having lived in exile for five years in Ukraine. Both decisions were hailed by Western governments.

Lukashenko has also tried to paint himself as the lesser of two evils when it comes to Putin. “I’m not Europe’s last dictator anymore,” he joked in a statement to the Washington Post back in May. “There are dictators a bit worse than me, no? I’m the lesser evil already.” By comparison to Putin and his expansionist, militaristic policies, Lukashenko seems like the leader of a small, quiet, and isolated country. Not only has his recent pro-Western policies done well to improve his image among European countries, but it has also helped to reignite a hope for a democratic Belarus. There has only been one election in Belarus deemed to be democratic since its independence: the one that got Lukashenko into power.

However, no major obstacles are reported to be expected in the completion of this Russian Military Base, and although Lukashenko has so far released no comment on the project, he is likely against it. At the same time, he doesn’t really have a choice. Despite improvements in Western ties, Belarus is still tied to the hip with Russia. The talks of this air base only seem to be a grim reminder to Belarus that Russian dominance in the country will likely not go away any time soon.