Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has won his fifth term in office, winning a whopping 83.5% of the votes, the Guardian reports. There was a voter turnout of around 87%, and the next most popular option in the election was “Against All” at 6.44% – gaining more votes than any of the other opposition candidates.
The results of this election are no surprise. Every election in Belarus since 1994, the one in which Lukashenko was first elected into power, has been rigged in the incumbent President’s favor; Belarusian elections are condemned by the OSCE and human rights organizations as undemocratic, and he is often described by Western media outlets as “the last dictator in Europe.” And although there may now be other dictators in Europe to join his ranks, that does not mean that he is any less of a dictator.
Since 1994, Lukashenko’s regime has run on platforms revolving around stability, independence, and Soviet nostalgia. Under the President, Belarus has reverted back to many Soviet policies such as state ownership of many industries in Belarus and fining the unemployed because they are “pests” to society. He even staged a referendum back in the 1990s to change the flag of Belarus from the historical white-red-white design used immediately after independence to a version of the old Soviet flag of Belarus, minus the hammer and sickle. This controversial referendum also made Russian a co-official language of Belarus and supported economic integration with Russia, but was lambasted by both international organizations and local groups as illegitimate and illegal.
In fact, since Lukashenko was elected, there has been very little democracy within this isolated nation within Eastern Europe. The President has had a near absolute control on all elections and referendums in this country. So it is no surprise that this recent election is no different. However, this election is not significant for the election process itself, which is undemocratic, or even the results, which are largely illegitimate, but for what might be coming in the aftermath of the election.
In the last 2010 presidential election, there was a massive crackdown after the ballots were cast on many opposition politicians and protesters in Belarus. Estimates place the number of people who were arrested afterwards at around 700 people, including 7 of the opposition candidates that ran in the election. The protesters, whom the government claimed were barbarous hooligans who attempted to raid governmental buildings, were brutally beaten. This scene is reminiscent of the aftermath of the previous presidential election in 2006, in which an attempted revolution (dubbed the “Jeans Revolution” by pro-democratic Belarusian protesters) was once again brutally suppressed.
However, this time, response to protesters might be different. Although Lukashenko has previously touted pro-Russian and anti-Western policies as described above, he appears to be growing increasingly more weary of his neighbor to the East. In response to Russia’s attempts to try to build an airbase in the country, Lukashenko responded that his country did not need another airbase. Not to mention the fact that he has, if only mildly, supported Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Likely in response to these views, the EU appears to be on track to suspend economic sanctions imposed on the country due to its undemocratic positions, in spite of the recent election.
Chances are, though, that the EU will reimpose sanctions if another high-profile crackdown occurs after the election, particularly if it is as bloody as the last two. So if Lukashenko truly wishes to warm up his country’s relations with the West, then he may have no choice but to give the protesters at least some leeway to protest the election’s results.
Although it is not a large victory for free speech, it is at least a small development in a country that has very little free speech to begin with.
Newborn Republic 