The International Crisis Group has released a report that warns that the Central Asian nation of Tajikistan could see increased instability and could even become a failed state, due to both internal persecution and external threats. The report focuses in on an increased extremist presence in the region and actions taken by the Tajik government to suppress religious expression. Tajikistan, a Muslim-majority nation, has in recent years become increasingly paranoid about the threat of Islamic Terrorism.
Instability is nothing new to Tajikistan. In the Central Asian region, an unstable area to begin with, there have been three major conflicts: two of these conflicts have taken place in Tajikistan. The Tajikistani Civil War lasted from 1992, shortly after the nation’s independence, until 1997. The Civil War is estimated to have killed up to 100,000 people and displaced over a million Tajiks within and outside the country. The opposing side of the War, the United Tajik Opposition, included forces that both fought for democracy within the country as well as some groups that fought for Islamism. It is even said that the Opposition had some support from Taliban and Al-Qaeda factions. Ultimately, a peace treaty was signed, and the United Tajik Opposition was disbanded. The country was left in ruin, and the government made an even further turn towards authoritarianism under Tajik President Emomali Rahmon. The second conflict in Tajikistan was an insurgency that lasted between 2010 and 2012, and led by some leaders from the previous Tajik Opposition’s Islamist factions. This time, causalities were much less severe, although with the direct sponsorship of the Al-Qaeda-affiliated terrorist group the Islamic Movement in Uzbekistan, the government was now even more afraid of the threat of Islamic terrorism in the country.
In the past year, there has not only been an increase in activity of the Taliban in Afghanistan, but now there are groups affiliated with the Islamic State operating in the region. Out of all of the Post-Soviet Central Asian nations, Tajikistan shares the largest border with Afghanistan. So for Tajikistan, the poorest state in all of Central Asia and the least-equipped to handle terrorism, this terrorist reemergence is especially dangerous. As Tajikistan is currently suffering from a weak economy and poor infrastructure, it does not have the ability to properly maintain its border with Afghanistan. The report describes the Tajik-Afghan border as “inconsistent at best”, making it not very difficult for terrorists from Afghanistan to cross into the country. Make no mistake: there is a very real and very serious threat to the well-being of the Tajik people here.
However, instead of promoting a peaceful image of Islam for the Muslim-majority nation to follow, President Rahmon has pursued a dangerous policy of forcing secularism upon the population. The government, although not outright banning mosques, made the process to have them register with the government more difficult, and destroyed mosques and any other places of worship for both Muslims and non-Muslims alike that were not registered. Tajikistan’s Education Ministry has banned girls from wearing the hijab and other headscarves in public schools, and wearing hijabs in general, as well as having long beards for men, is discouraged by the government. Early this year, the government even banned the use of Arabic names, as they were deemed as “foreign.” Promoting a secular vision Islam is fine; done well, it is even commendable. But when it is forced upon a population that is devoutly Muslim, it feels too much like Soviet times. And pent-up anger and frustration from previous and current religious persecutions will only fuel violent radicalism. It already has: last year, Gulmurod Khalimov, a high-ranking general previously within the security elite of Tajikistan, defected to the Islamic State, and many more recruits from Tajikistan and Central Asia as a whole have been estimated.
In addition to these repressive measures by the Rahmon regime, last year Rahmon banned the moderate Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan, one of the groups from the original Tajikistan Opposition from the Civil War that, under a peace deal in 1997, would retain a certain number of seats within the parliament. After 2015 parliamentary elections, which contained a large amount of irregularities just as the rest of the region has, the Party lost their seats; some months later, the party was banned altogether; and finally, the group was declared a terrorist group. Although the Islamic Renaissance Party promoted political Islam as its ideology, it was not violent (at least not after the Civil War), and its removal and explicit denunciation by the government has only led to an increased resentment among the populace. The government’s repression of any forms of political Islam could very well lead to an increase of militant Islam within the country.
President Rahmon’s actions against Islam in the public eye, as well as the increasing instability occurring to Tajikistan’s South in Northern Afghanistan, lead to the report stating that Tajikistan could very well become a failed state in the near future. This must not happen. If Tajikistan falls or becomes engrossed in another Civil War or insurgency, then the country will most certainly act as a hub for terrorists to spread across the fragile Central Asian region. In response to the threats posed by the Taliban and the Islamic State in Afghanistan, Russia and regional partners such as Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan must come together to protect the Tajik border. Each of these countries has a stake in Tajikistan, and so they will likely at least attempt to protect the country from ruin. However, as they have dismal human rights records themselves, they are not likely to protest Rahmon’s policies of repressing Islam in society. For this angle, it is the responsibility of the United States and the European Union to increase pressure upon Rahmon to stop these unhelpful methods of trying to stop Islamic radicalization, as it is not only wrong, but it will likely only lead to further Islamic radicalization. The West already has some counter-terrorism links with Tajikistan through the Afghanistan War. If the President is wise, then he will listen to the Western government’s requests to, at the very least, lessen his grip on religious freedoms within his country. Will this happen? It is too early to say. But if President Rahmon does not let up, then Tajikistan faces a serious risk of plunging into a conflict from which it may not return for some time.
Newborn Republic 