Montenegro Invited to Become 29th Member of NATO

Map of NATO countries (in green) and Montenegro (in orange)

Official talks have begun between NATO officials and the Balkan nation of Montenegro for the latter’s accession into the organization, Radio Free Europe reports. This comes after the North Atlantic Treaty Organization invited the small country to become its 29th member in December after reviewing its application to join, and comes with complaints from Serbia, which Montenegro was once a part of, and Russia, which sees Montenegro joining the organization as continued NATO expansionism and a threat.

The most recent expansion of NATO occurred in 2009, with the accession of Albania and Croatia to the organization, two more countries in the Western Balkans. Montenegro officially started its talks to join the alliance in 2010, after it was given a Membership Action Plan, a mechanism that allows NATO members to formally and frequently review applications of aspiring countries. Currently, three countries have the MAP: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, and Montenegro. All three are Western Balkan nations once part of Yugoslavia. These final rounds of talks between Montenegro and NATO are meant to clarify and solve “outstanding issues”, and could be complete as early as the next NATO summit in Warsaw this July.

NATO’s decision to invite Montenegro immediately drew the ire of Serbia, Russia, and even some elements from within Montenegro itself. However, to fully understand the controversial nature of Montenegro’s accession to NATO, one must look at the country’s recent history. During the breakup of Yugoslavia in the 90s, Montenegro remained a part of Serbia, or the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, as it was known during the time. And during the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999, NATO allied itself with Kosovar separatists and bombed Yugoslav positions, including several times in Montenegro. The intervention ended in a NATO victory, and was the second major combat operation in the organization’s history, after NATO’s bombing campaign in Bosnia and Herzegovina only a few years before. However, anti-NATO sentiment was very high afterwards, particularly in Serbia.

In the early 2000s, the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia went through immense reforms, largely due to increasing separatist feelings in Montenegro. Earlier, Montenegro had already adopted the German Deutsche Mark, and later even adopted the Euro as its official currency (although it is not part of the Eurozone). In 2003, the FR Yugoslavia underwent further decentralization and was renamed the State Union of Serbia and Montenegro. Finally, in 2006, Montenegrins narrowly voted for independence in a referendum that saw 55.5% vote for, only just passing the 55% threshold to validate the vote. Montenegro very soon after declared its independence, with no country objecting.

However, the closeness of the results in the independence referendum highlight the fractured nature of Montenegrin society. Although a slight majority of the population wish for closer ties with the West, a large portion still remember the country’s Serbian ties and, more importantly, NATO’s intervention in the former Yugoslavia. Although the government of Montenegro has been pushing for NATO membership for quite some time, there are major Montenegrin opposition parties that are very against joining the organization. This schism is reflected in the population as well: in a poll taken in 2014, 46% of the population was for NATO membership, while 42% was against. In response to the recent invitation, thousands of protesters have marched out in the streets of the Montenegrin capital in opposition.

Russia also sees NATO expansionism as a threat to itself. From Russia’s point of view, during the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact, the Soviet Union’s NATO equivalent with Eastern European countries, an understanding was reached between Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and the West that outside of East Germany, which would be reunited with West Germany, NATO would “not move an inch” East. The fact that this promise was not only violated, with NATO expanding dramatically in 1997, 2004, and 2007 to include nearly all of the former Soviet satellites, in addition to the lack of coordination with Russia, is seen as a betrayal to many Russians. So whenever NATO expands, particularly in a country that is quite close to Russia, it seen as a direct threat to Russia. Serbia and Russia share deep historical and cultural ties, and these ties are also prevalent in Montenegro. Montenegro is a popular tourist destination for Russians, and since independence large amounts of Russian money has come to the country.

Since Montenegro was invited into the Alliance, Russia has called on the nation to hold a referendum, as seen in this BBC article, citing the “deep divisions” in the Balkan nation over the issue. And Russia, for its part, is right. For such an important issue as joining a major bloc such as NATO, a comfortable majority is needed. Regarding NATO’s two newest members, Croatia and Albania, polls before joining the alliance show 52% of the population for joining with 25% against in the former, while in Albania an overwhelming majority, 95%, of the population were for accession to NATO. In Montenegro, the percentage of those for is much less clear.

However, if the Montenegrin government and NATO get their way, no referendum will take place. Montenegro’s Prime Minister has resisted calls for a referendum, and NATO officials point to opinion polls that have Montenegrins slightly in favor of joining. However, if it is only slightly in favor, then shouldn’t a confidence vote take place in order to more firmly gauge the public’s attitude towards this? Of course, there is a chance that the referendum may not get a majority for membership, but if NATO is (or at least, is supposed to be) an alliance of democratic countries, then shouldn’t they respect the democratic process?

Although I may not agree with all of the motives of Russia for opposing Montenegro’s accession to NATO, I firmly believe in the self-determination of all peoples. The Montenegrin opposition parties opposed to NATO membership must more strongly push for a referendum on the matter, and a clear majority must be needed in order to continue any further into the alliance. Otherwise, it will look very hypocritical for Western countries, which supposedly support freedom and democracy, and give Russia yet another talking point in “proving” the ill intentions of NATO.